ExxonMobil

In 1977, a senior Exxon scientist briefed the company's Management Committee that burning fossil fuels was warming the planet and that doubling atmospheric CO2 would raise global temperatures by 2–3°C. Between 1978 and 1982, Exxon ran one of the world's leading corporate research programs on climate change — equipping a supertanker with instruments to measure ocean CO2 absorption and employing top atmospheric scientists. In 1982, Exxon's Environmental Affairs Programs manager produced a comprehensive internal document projecting 1.3–3.1°C of warming from doubled CO2. It was marked "not for distribution." Exxon then shut down the research program and changed course. The temperature projections in those documents, as confirmed by peer-reviewed analysis in Science (2023), were accurate — consistent with actual observed warming through today.

• —1957: Exxon scientists began studying atmospheric CO2 and fossil fuel combustion.
• —1977: James Black, Exxon Products Research Division, briefed Management Committee — human-caused warming was real; 5–10 year window for decisions.
• —1978–1982: Exxon ran one of the world's leading corporate climate research programs. Equipped the Esso Atlantic supertanker with CO2 measurement instruments.
• —1982: Internal "CO2 Greenhouse Effect: A Technical Review" projected 1.3–3.1°C warming from doubled CO2. Marked "not for distribution."
• —Peer-reviewed verification: Supran, Rahmstorf, Oreskes (Science, 2023) — Exxon's internal projections were accurate and consistent with the best science of their day, and with actual warming to date.
• —CO2 at time of Black's 1977 warning: ~334 ppm. CO2 in 2024: ~424 ppm. Temperature increase: ~1.3°C. Exxon's models were right.

After the scientific consensus on climate change began to solidify in the late 1980s, Exxon — which held 25 years of internal research confirming the danger — chose to attack the science rather than act on it. Under CEO Lee Raymond, the company made climate denial a strategic imperative. The Union of Concerned Scientists documented that Exxon funded at least 43 advocacy organizations between 1998 and 2005, spending over $30 million on think tanks and front groups whose function was to manufacture the appearance of scientific uncertainty — including the Heartland Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Cato Institute, the American Enterprise Institute, the George C. Marshall Institute, the Fraser Institute, and Tech Central Station. In 2000, CEO Raymond told the World Petroleum Congress that global warming was "highly uncertain" — in the same year Exxon's own internal models were accurately projecting the temperature rise now being observed.

• —1989: Exxon co-founded the Global Climate Coalition — 46 corporate members — whose explicit purpose was to cast doubt on climate science and oppose international agreements. GCC disbanded 2002 as members defected.
• —1998–2005 (Lee Raymond era): systematic funding of at least 43 advocacy organizations. Total documented: $30M+.
• —Recipients: Heartland Institute, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Cato Institute, American Enterprise Institute, George C. Marshall Institute, Fraser Institute, Tech Central Station.
• —2000: Raymond told World Petroleum Congress global warming was "highly uncertain" — while internal models accurately projected ongoing warming.
• —Greenpeace Exxon Secrets database documented the full funding network.
• —UCS 2007 report: “Exxon has manufactured uncertainty about the human causes of global warming just as tobacco companies tried to manufacture uncertainty about the health effects of smoking.”

In 1998, the American Petroleum Institute — with ExxonMobil as a primary participant — produced an internal strategy document, later obtained by the New York Times, known as the "Global Climate Science Communications Action Plan." The document explicitly stated that victory would be achieved when average citizens "understand (recognize) uncertainties in climate science." It called for training a "cadre of scientists" who could "speak with one voice." It set targets: journalists should "stop covering global warming as a crisis." This plan was written by an industry whose members held internal scientific documents confirming the catastrophe. Exxon's own scientists had modeled the warming with accuracy. The plan was a blueprint for manufacturing disinformation.

• —1998: API Global Climate Science Communications Action Plan produced. Exxon principal participant.
• —Stated goal: "average citizens understand (recognize) uncertainties in climate science."
• —Operational tactics: train "cadre of scientists" to speak with one voice; create "information kit" for media; target schools.
• —Media target: journalists should "stop covering global warming as a crisis."
• —Document became public through investigative reporting by the New York Times.
• —Plan written by industry representatives who simultaneously held internal documents confirming the danger — no actual scientific uncertainty existed within their own files.

On July 1, 2021, Greenpeace UK's investigative unit published undercover video of Keith McCoy, a senior ExxonMobil lobbyist, speaking freely to a journalist posing as a corporate recruiter. McCoy stated that Exxon "aggressively" fought against climate science. He explained that the company used "shadow groups" — trade associations including the US Chamber of Commerce and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers — to oppose climate legislation while keeping Exxon's name off the advocacy, specifically to avoid accountability. He stated that CEO Darren Woods's public support for a carbon tax was a "talking point" that Exxon "knew was never going to happen." He said Exxon lobbied aggressively against Biden's clean electricity standard through these proxies. Exxon's response: McCoy's statements were "not a reflection of our position." McCoy was a registered Exxon lobbyist who had testified before the US Senate as a company representative.

• —July 1, 2021: Greenpeace UK / Unearthed published undercover footage of Keith McCoy, senior ExxonMobil lobbyist.
• —McCoy: "Did we aggressively fight against some of the science? Yes."
• —Described CEO Darren Woods's carbon tax support as a "talking point" — "we knew that was never going to happen."
• —Detailed use of "shadow groups" — US Chamber of Commerce, AFPM — to oppose climate legislation while hiding Exxon's direct involvement.
• —Said Exxon lobbied aggressively against Biden's clean electricity standard through these proxies.
• —Exxon response: statements "not a reflection of our position." McCoy was a registered company lobbyist who had testified before the US Senate.
• —House Oversight Committee investigation (2021–2022): Exxon executives privately lobbied against climate action while publicly supporting a carbon tax.

On January 12, 2023, Science published "Assessing ExxonMobil's global warming projections" — a peer-reviewed study by Supran, Rahmstorf, and Oreskes analyzing 32 internal Exxon documents (1977–2003) and 72 paid New York Times advertorials (1977–2014). Key findings: Exxon's internal models accurately projected 0.2°C of warming per decade; 63–90% of internal documents acknowledged human-caused climate change was real; 81% of public advertorials cast doubt on climate science or emphasized uncertainty. Before publication, ExxonMobil filed in a Texas court seeking a temporary restraining order to block the study's publication, claiming the study used proprietary data. The court declined. The study was published in Science. This is a company that already possessed the science — that marked it "not for distribution" in 1982 — now attempting to litigate against an academic journal to prevent public confirmation of what its own documents showed.

• —January 13, 2023: Science published Supran, Rahmstorf, Oreskes study on ExxonMobil's climate projections.
• —Study analyzed 32 internal Exxon documents (1977–2003) and 72 paid NYT advertorials (1977–2014).
• —Internal documents: 63–90% acknowledged human-caused climate change as real and significant.
• —Public advertorials: 81% cast doubt on climate science or emphasized uncertainty.
• —Temperature projection accuracy: internal models projected ~0.2°C/decade — consistent with actual observed warming.
• —Before publication: Exxon filed in Texas court seeking TRO to block publication. Court declined.
• —The company that had marked its own findings "not for distribution" in 1982 attempted to block their public confirmation 41 years later.

Following the InsideClimate News (2015) and Columbia University reporting on Exxon's internal documents, multiple state attorneys general opened investigations under fraud theories. New York's 2019 trial on a narrow securities-fraud theory resulted in a verdict for Exxon — but only addressed whether Exxon had misled investors about carbon cost calculations; it did not address the broader fraud question. In 2023, the Hawaii Supreme Court ruled that municipal climate liability cases could proceed in state court, rejecting Exxon's preferred federal venue. Massachusetts's case — the broadest consumer fraud theory — remains active as of 2026. More than 20 municipalities and states have filed suit. No final damages verdict has been issued. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil's 2022 net income was $55.7 billion — a record, driven by Russia-Ukraine energy price spikes. The company announced $30 billion in stock buybacks. The climate adaptation costs are borne by governments and populations worldwide.

• —2015: New York AG opened investigation; 2016: Massachusetts AG opened investigation.
• —20+ municipalities and states filed suit alleging climate deception caused foreseeable, compensable harm.
• —October 2019: New York trial resulted in verdict for Exxon — narrow securities theory on investor disclosure, not the broader fraud.
• —2023: Hawaii Supreme Court ruled municipal climate cases can proceed in state court — rejected Exxon's federal removal strategy.
• —Massachusetts v. ExxonMobil: broadest consumer fraud theory; active as of 2026.
• —2022: Exxon net income $55.7B (record). Stock buybacks: $30B announced. CEO Darren Woods compensation: ~$36M.
• —CO2 in 2024: ~424 ppm, up from ~334 ppm in 1977. Warming: ~1.3°C above pre-industrial — within Exxon's own 1977–1982 projections.

In 2022, ExxonMobil reported $55.7 billion in net income — the largest profit in the company's history, driven in substantial part by elevated energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The company announced $30 billion in stock buybacks. CEO Darren Woods received approximately $36 million in compensation. During the same period, climate adaptation costs — flood control, wildfire suppression, drought response, sea-level rise infrastructure, extreme heat mortality — were borne by governments and populations around the world. The structural argument: ExxonMobil created or materially worsened the conditions for these costs by spending 40+ years suppressing climate science, funding denial, and blocking the policy responses that would have reduced emissions. The company extracted the profit; the world absorbed the bill.

• —2022: ExxonMobil net income $55.7B — all-time record. Stock buybacks: $30B announced.
• —CEO Darren Woods 2022 compensation: ~$36M.
• —CO2 emissions from ExxonMobil operations and product use contribute a measurable fraction of the global warming trajectory the company's own scientists modeled in 1977.
• —Climate adaptation costs 2023: $16–23B in US federal disaster spending (NOAA); hundreds of billions globally in flood, drought, fire, and heat-mortality costs.
• —Structural charge: Exxon suppressed science, funded denial, blocked policy, and extracted profits for 40+ years while adaptation costs were socialized.
• —No criminal charges. No final civil damages judgment. Active state-court cases ongoing.